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Shell Q3 Earnings Beat Forecasts Despite Softer Oil Prices

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Key Takeaways

  • Shell beat Q3 earnings estimates with $1.86 per ADS despite lower oil prices.
  • Revenues slipped 2.9% year over year to $70.4B, missing consensus by 5.9%.
  • Shell repurchased $3.6B in shares and plans another $3.5B buyback in Q4.

Europe’s largest oil company, Shell plc (SHEL - Free Report) , reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per ADS (on a current cost of supplies basis, excluding items — the market’s preferred measure) of $1.86, which came in above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 on the back of cost reductions and robust oil volumes.

However, the bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.92 due to a decline in oil prices.

Shell’s revenues of $70.4 billion were down from $72.5 billion in third-quarter 2024 and missed the consensus mark by 5.9%.

Meanwhile, Shell repurchased $3.6 billion in shares in the third quarter. The London-based company expects another $3.5 billion worth of repurchases for the fourth quarter. 

Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR Quote

Inside Shell’s Segments

Upstream: The segment recorded a profit of $1.8 billion (excluding items) during the quarter, down from $2.3 billion (adjusted) in the year-ago period. This primarily reflects the impact of lower liquids prices and a decline in natural gas output.

At $64.44 per barrel, the group’s worldwide realized liquids prices were 14.2% below the year-earlier levels, while natural gas prices dropped a marginal 0.8%.

Shell’s upstream volumes averaged 1,832 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), up 1.1% from the year-ago period, mainly due to a rise in oil churned out by the company. Liquids production totaled 1,399 thousand barrels per day (an increase of 5.9% year over year), and natural gas output came in at 2,513 million standard cubic feet per day (down 11.6%).

Chemicals and Products: In this segment, the London-based supermajor reported an adjusted profit of $550 million, improving 18.8% from $463 million earned in the year-ago period. The favorable comparison was due to higher refining and chemicals margins. Meanwhile, refinery utilization came in at 96%.

Integrated Gas: The unit reported an adjusted income of $2.1 billion, deteriorating from $2.9 billion in the July-September quarter of 2024. Results were primarily impacted by lower realized prices and a slight drop in production available for sale, which edged down 0.7% from the third quarter of 2024 to 934 MBOE/d. However, LNG sales volumes were up 10.8% year over year to 18.88 million tons.

Marketing: The segment recorded an income of $1.3 billion (excluding items) during the quarter compared to the year-ago earnings of $1.2 billion, due to higher margins. 

Renewables and Energy Solutions: The segment incurred an adjusted income of $92 million, turning around from the year-ago loss of $162 million. The performance boost primarily reflects higher margins. External power sales were down 8.9% year over year to 72 terawatt hours but piped gas sales rose 1.4% to 150 terawatt hours.  

 

Financial Performance

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company had $33.1 billion in cash and $74 billion in debt (including short-term debt). Net debt-to-capitalization was approximately 18.8%, up from 15.7% a year ago. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

During the quarter under review, Shell generated cash flow from operations of $12.2 billion, returned $2.1 billion to its shareholders through dividends, and spent $4.9 billion in cash on capital projects.

The company’s cash flow from operations decreased nearly 17% from the year-earlier level. Meanwhile, the group raked in $10 billion in free cash flow during the third quarter compared to $10.8 billion a year ago.

Guidance

Shell expects fourth-quarter 2025 upstream volumes of 1,770-1,970 MBOE/d, while Integrated Gas production is expected between 920 MBOE/d and 980 MBOE/d. The company also foresees marketing sales volumes of 2,500-3,000 thousand barrels per day and refinery utilization in the range of 87-95%. Meanwhile, Shell expects its total cash capital expenditure for full-year 2025 to range between $20 billion and $22 billion.

A Look at Other ‘Big Oil’ Earnings

While we have discussed Shell’s third-quarter results in detail, let’s take a look at some other Big Oil reports of this season.

American multinational ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.88 (excluding identified items), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.81. The bottom line, however, declined from the year-ago level of $1.92. ExxonMobil’s total quarterly revenues of $85.3 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $86.8 billion. The top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $90 billion.

ExxonMobil’s better-than-expected quarterly earnings were fueled by higher oil equivalent production volumes and higher natural gas prices. The positives were partially offset by lower crude oil price realizations.

Smaller rival Chevron (CVX - Free Report) reported adjusted EPS of $1.85, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66. The outperformance stemmed from higher-than-expected production in the company’s key upstream segment. The company’s output of 4.086 MBOE/d — a record — came in above the consensus mark of 3,928 MBOE/d. Healthy gain in domestic natural gas realizations and stronger refined product sales margins also played their part. 

Chevron recorded $9.4 billion in cash flow from operations compared with $9.7 billion in the year-ago period. Chevron’s free cash flow for the quarter was $4.9 billion. 

London-based BP plc (BP - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of 85 cents. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents and improved from the year-ago reported figure of 83 cents. BP’s strong quarterly earnings can be primarily attributed to an increase in oil production volumes and higher realized refining margins. However, lower hydrocarbon price realization partially offset the positives.

BP expects fourth-quarter 2025 upstream production to remain flat with the previous quarter’s level. It also anticipates a seasonal decline in volumes in its customers' business and a similar refinery turnaround activity compared to the third quarter. BP's net debt was $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. Also, the firm announced a gearing of 25.1% for the reported period.

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